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Sulphur — Deep Resource Analysis

Why This Matters

Gulf states produce 44% of global sulphur. 50% of seaborne sulphur trade transits Hormuz. Sulphur is essential for copper refining, nickel refining, and fertilizer production — making it a hidden chokepoint connecting energy, mining, batteries, and food.

Production & Trade

  • Middle East: 44% of global production (nearly 2x their hydrocarbon share)
  • 50% of seaborne trade transits Strait of Hormuz
  • Pre-war price: ~$500/ton
  • Current: +10-15% since war announcement

Cascade Chain

Sulphur disrupted
  ├──→ Sulphuric acid shortage
  │     ├──→ Fertilizer production falls (phosphates, DAP)
  │     ├──→ Copper refining costs spike (20-25% of smelting costs)
  │     └──→ Nickel refining constrained
  │           └──→ Battery cathodes scarce
  │                 └──→ EV production delayed
  │                       └──→ ENERGY TRANSITION SLOWED
  └──→ The war simultaneously creates incentive for green energy
       AND disrupts the supply chain to build it

Key Dependency: Indonesia Nickel

  • Indonesia sources 75% of sulphur from Middle East
  • Facing forced production cuts
  • Indonesia is world's largest nickel producer (critical for batteries)
  • Cascades into global EV and battery storage supply chains

Tanker Transit Status

  • Hormuz tanker transits: down 90%
  • Sulphur cargoes stranded with other bulk commodities
  • China entering spring planting season with tightening supplies (SCMP confirmed)

Sources

bne IntelliNews, SCMP, Kitco News, EIA — March 2026