Sulphur — Deep Resource Analysis¶
Why This Matters¶
Gulf states produce 44% of global sulphur. 50% of seaborne sulphur trade transits Hormuz. Sulphur is essential for copper refining, nickel refining, and fertilizer production — making it a hidden chokepoint connecting energy, mining, batteries, and food.
Production & Trade¶
- Middle East: 44% of global production (nearly 2x their hydrocarbon share)
- 50% of seaborne trade transits Strait of Hormuz
- Pre-war price: ~$500/ton
- Current: +10-15% since war announcement
Cascade Chain¶
Sulphur disrupted
├──→ Sulphuric acid shortage
│ ├──→ Fertilizer production falls (phosphates, DAP)
│ ├──→ Copper refining costs spike (20-25% of smelting costs)
│ └──→ Nickel refining constrained
│ └──→ Battery cathodes scarce
│ └──→ EV production delayed
│ └──→ ENERGY TRANSITION SLOWED
└──→ The war simultaneously creates incentive for green energy
AND disrupts the supply chain to build it
Key Dependency: Indonesia Nickel¶
- Indonesia sources 75% of sulphur from Middle East
- Facing forced production cuts
- Indonesia is world's largest nickel producer (critical for batteries)
- Cascades into global EV and battery storage supply chains
Tanker Transit Status¶
- Hormuz tanker transits: down 90%
- Sulphur cargoes stranded with other bulk commodities
- China entering spring planting season with tightening supplies (SCMP confirmed)
Sources¶
bne IntelliNews, SCMP, Kitco News, EIA — March 2026