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Shipping & Insurance — Infrastructure Resource Analysis

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapse

  • Pre-war: 100-135 daily vessel movements
  • Current: 16 AIS-visible crossings/week (11 outbound, 5 inbound) — 92% collapse
  • Iran implementing "vetting and registration system" for transits
  • Chinese-flagged vessels allowed through more readily

Mine Warfare

  • Iran has laid "a few dozen" mines but retains 80-90% of minelayer capacity
  • Total inventory: 5,000-6,000 mines (limpet, moored, Maham 1)
  • US sunk 16 Iranian minelayers by early March
  • Clearance economics: 1-3 orders of magnitude MORE expensive to clear than to deploy
  • Safety level for tanker operators: weeks. Full sweep: months or never

Insurance — The Most Powerful Weapon

  • War risk premiums: +1,500-3,000% (0.02% → 1.0%+ of vessel value)
  • VLCC ($100M): premium jumped from ~$200K to ~$1M per voyage
  • LNG carrier ($150M): add ~$1.5M per voyage
  • P&I Clubs (Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard): cancelled coverage for Persian Gulf
  • Joint War Committee: expanded Listed Areas to include Bahrain, Djibouti, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar
  • Insurance is binary: no coverage = cannot legally sail. Economic blockade outlasts military blockade.

Container Shipping

  • Maersk: suspended ALL Hormuz crossings (FM1, ME11 services)
  • MSC (world's largest): ordered Gulf vessels to safe areas; suspended bookings
  • Hapag-Lloyd: suspended bookings for Gulf ports
  • Surcharges: $1,500-3,500/TEU depending on carrier and container type

Tanker Market

  • VLCC rates: $423,736/day (all-time record, ME-China benchmark)
  • Peak: ~$460,000/day for Red Sea loads
  • 247 MR+ vessels stranded in Gulf (~6% of global tanker DWT)
  • 984 tankers (~22% of global fleet) stuck in broader ME region

Alternative Routes

  • Cape of Good Hope: +10-14 sailing days, +30% fuel, $200-400/TEU added
  • India trade: freight +50%, air rates +300%
  • Suez Canal: still 60% below pre-crisis levels despite 100+ days without Houthi attacks

Air Freight

  • Global capacity: -9% overall
  • Asia-Middle East/South Asia-Europe corridor: -40%
  • FedEx: suspended all Arabian Gulf flights
  • Rates could double or triple in protracted disruption

Polyethylene (Key Commodity)

  • 85% of ME exports via Hormuz
  • 19M tonnes/year ME capacity shut down; 61M tonnes indirectly affected
  • Prices surged 50-80% in some markets
  • Affects: packaging, automotive, consumer goods, medical devices

Port Congestion

  • Jebel Ali (Dubai): suspended vessel cargo operations — 791 points of global connectivity offline
  • Khor Fakkan: delays exceeding 10 days; long truck queues
  • CMA CGM deploying alternatives via Fujairah, Sohar with land transport bridges

Shadow Fleet

  • ~1,500 tankers (Russian/Iranian/Venezuelan oil)
  • Russia uses for ~80% of oil exports
  • AIS manipulation, opaque ownership, fraudulent insurance
  • India seized 3 Iranian tankers (Feb 2026)
  • France: 8 frigates + 2 amphibious ships + carrier Charles de Gaulle
  • UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, Canada: joint statement on readiness
  • No active escort convoys operating yet — contingent on de-escalation
  • Trump urged coalition; response "muted"

Key Insight

Even after fighting stops, trade doesn't resume immediately. Lloyd's war-risk reassessment takes weeks to months. Insurance markets stay closed long after the last shot. The economic blockade has a longer tail than the military one.

Sources

CNBC, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Euronews, Lloyd's List, Kpler, Windward AI, Freightwaves, Naval News — March 2026