Military Munitions — The Consumable Resource¶
Expenditure Rate¶
- First 100 hours: $3.7B, 168 Tomahawks
- First 96 hours: 5,197 munitions across 35 types ($10-16B replacement cost)
- Day 12: $16.5B cumulative
- Peak daily: $2B/day
Key Munition Status¶
| Munition | Pre-War Stock | Used | Production Rate | Target Rate | Unit Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomahawk | 3,100 | ~400 (6 days) | 90/year | 1,000/year | $3.6M |
| Patriot PAC-3 | Classified | 800+ (3 days) | ~620/year | 2,000/year | $4M |
| THAAD | Classified | Significant | 96/year | 400/year | $12.77M |
| SM-6 | Classified | Significant | <500/year | 500/year | $4.3M |
| Iron Dome (Tamir) | Thousands | Thousands | — | 2,000/year (Camden) | $50K |
| JDAM | Tens of thousands | Thousands | — | — | $81.5K |
The Cost Asymmetry Problem¶
| Iran's Weapon | Cost | US/Allied Interceptor | Cost | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shahed-136 drone | $20,000 | Patriot PAC-3 | $4,000,000 | 1:200 |
| Shahed-136 drone | $20,000 | SM-6 | $4,300,000 | 1:215 |
| Shahed-136 drone | $20,000 | THAAD | $12,770,000 | 1:640 |
Iran produces 200-500 Shaheds/month. This is economically unsustainable for defenders.
Single-Point Production Failures¶
- Ammonium perchlorate (rocket motor oxidizer): ONE facility. 96 hours consumed 6.7% of annual capacity
- RDX/HMX (high explosives): Holston Army Ammunition Plant, Tennessee — sole source
- Rare earth magnets (guidance): 80,000+ parts depend on Chinese-controlled minerals
Ukraine Competition¶
- 800+ Patriot missiles in Middle East in 3 days > total Ukraine use since 2022
- Ukraine in queue behind Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Jordan
- Russia launched Ukraine spring offensive TIMED to US munitions diversion
- France: "acute shortage" of air-to-air missiles from operations
$200B Supplemental Request¶
- Pentagon requesting ~$200B from Congress
- No defined end-state or timeline
- Breakdown between operations vs procurement: not publicly detailed
- Even some Republicans expressing alarm
Defense Stocks¶
- RTX: +4.7% on Day 1; backlog $268B (+23% YoY)
- Lockheed Martin: +37% since Mar 2023; backlog $194B
- Northrop Grumman: +60% since Mar 2023
Replenishment Timeline¶
- Tomahawk ramp to 1,000/year: years (from 90)
- Patriot ramp to 2,000/year: 12-18 months
- THAAD quadrupling: 18+ months
- During rebuilding: deterrence against China is weakened
Sources¶
CSIS, FPRI, WaPo, CNN, 19FortyFive, Breaking Defense, JINSA, CNAS, Foreign Policy — March 2026