Resource Analysis Index¶
Tier 1: Primary Disruptions (Direct War Impact)¶
| Resource | File | Disruption Scale | Key Chokepoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Natural Gas | oil-gas.md | 20M bpd disrupted (largest in history) | Strait of Hormuz |
| Helium | helium.md | 33% of global supply offline | Qatar Ras Laffan |
| Bromine | bromine.md | 67% of global supply at risk | Israel/Jordan Dead Sea |
| Sulphur | sulphur.md | 24-44% production, 50% seaborne trade | Strait of Hormuz |
Tier 2: Secondary Cascades¶
| Resource | File | Disruption Scale | Key Chokepoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Earth Elements | rare-earths.md | China controls 90% processing | Chinese export controls |
| Fertilizers (Urea/Ammonia) | fertilizers.md | 1/3 of global trade via Hormuz | Gas feedstock + shipping |
| Uranium | uranium.md | Natanz struck; US imports 95%; 440.9 kg 60% HEU stockpile survived | Kazakhstan/Russia supply; Russia 46% enrichment |
| Lithium | lithium.md | Indirect-but-compounding; China 65-75% refining; no US reserve | Green transition paradox |
| Cobalt | cobalt.md | DRC 55% quota cut pre-war; China 78% refining | F-35 alloy dependency |
| Copper | copper.md | Sulphur transmission; TC/RCs $0; coiled spring | Green transition bottleneck #1 |
| Titanium | titanium.md | Zero US sponge; VSMPO halved; 1-3yr qualification | F-35 25%, F-22 42% |
| Gallium/Germanium | gallium-germanium.md | China 99%/83% production | Export ban suspension expires Nov 2026 |
Tier 3: Infrastructure Resources¶
| Resource | File | Disruption Scale | Key Chokepoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping & Insurance | shipping-insurance.md | 92% Hormuz traffic collapse | War risk premiums +3000% |
| Munitions | munitions.md | 5,197 munitions in 96 hours | Single-facility production |
| Polyethylene | polyethylene.md | 84% ME exports via Hormuz; 50% global capacity offline | Food packaging → spoilage cascade |
| Neon Gas | neon.md | Low direct risk; recycling halved demand | Combinatorial with helium+bromine = 30-50% chip cut |
Tier 4: Construction & Industrial¶
| Resource | File | Disruption Scale | Key Chokepoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Materials | construction-materials.md | Gulf 5Mt aluminum, Iran 32Mt steel; NEOM suspended | Energy intensity + reconstruction paradox $350-650B |
| Platinum Group Metals | platinum-group-metals.md | Russia 40% palladium; South Africa 70% platinum | Sanctions trigger; hydrogen fuel cell bottleneck; US NDS empty |