Cascade Analysis Index¶

Core Framework¶

Combinatorial Matrix — Brain file: 5 major cascade models, meta-cascade (China). Start here.

Cascade	Trigger	Scale	Key Finding
Water Crisis	Desalination strikes	100M+ at risk	56 mega-plants = 90% capacity; Qatar/Kuwait/Bahrain have days of reserves
Insurance Systemic Risk	War risk claims	Global trade	$1 insurance withdrawn = $390 trade frozen; PICC gives China asymmetric advantage
Maritime Chokepoint Network	Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb	All seaborne trade	Double chokepoint = no maritime route from Gulf; Cape of Good Hope sole fallback
Yemen/Houthi/Red Sea	Houthi escalation	Red Sea trade	Saudi Petroline at Yanbu vulnerable; Hormuz bypass negated

Cascade	Trigger	Scale	Key Finding
November 2026 Convergence	Midterms + gallium + winter	Maximum pressure point	24-day gap between election and gallium deadline = peak Chinese leverage
Nuclear Proliferation	Iran breakout/perception	Decades	Saudi/Turkey/Egypt/Japan/S.Korea pathways; 1→5 nuclear states
Ukraine War Interaction	Two-war feedback	NATO/global	Revenue-expenditure inversion; Russia grand bargain offer March 20
China-Taiwan Window	US overstretch	Indo-Pacific	Coercive leverage > invasion; mediator paradox; gray zone 35-45%
Sunni-Shia Dynamics	Sectarian mobilization	1.8B Muslims	Axis of Resistance fragmenting; Iraq is decisive battleground
Domestic Unrest	Economic/sectarian pressure	9 countries	Lebanon 90-95%; Iraq 70-80%; Bahrain 65-75%; US most unpopular war at launch

Cascade	Trigger	Scale	Key Finding
Cyber Escalation	Conventional loss → cyber	Global infrastructure	Iran's last power-projection domain; $50-200B insurance exposure vs $14B market
Space/Satellite	ASAT/GPS spoofing	Global navigation	Iran BeiDou transition makes GPS denial counterproductive
Information Warfare	AI deepfakes	Domestic politics	Iran 145M views; verification collapse → policy paralysis

Cascade	Trigger	Scale	Key Finding
Global Financial Contagion	Stagflation + EM defaults	Global GDP	1997-style contagion; IMF lacks capacity for simultaneous crises
Migration/Remittance	Gulf worker displacement	30M workers, $115B	Nepal 27% GDP; 10-15x scale of 1990-91 Gulf War
Crypto/Alternative Finance	Sanctions/insurance failure	Financial architecture	Russia A7A5 $100B+; Saudi mBridge = key de-dollarization indicator

Cascade	Trigger	Scale	Key Finding
Climate/Weather Compounding	El Nino + war	Food/energy	El Nino 62% by summer; Gulf hurricane on 56% US refining capacity
Health/Environmental	Strikes + contamination	Decades	Tehran black rain 9-10M exposed; 30-year cancer timeline