Simulation Blind Spots — Coverage Audit¶
Last updated: 2026-03-24
Coverage Status¶
All 6 original blind spot categories have been researched and modeled. This file now serves as an audit of what's covered and what structural assumptions remain untested.
Category 1: ACTORS — Fully Covered¶
| Actor | File | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | countries/pakistan.md | 170 warheads, Baluchistan, CPEC, sectarian risk |
| North Korea | countries/north-korea.md | THAAD redeployed, late-2026 provocation window |
| Japan | countries/japan.md | Four paradoxes, Sept-Oct SPR crisis point |
| South Korea | countries/south-korea.md | Triple semiconductor crisis, defense export boom |
| Africa | countries/africa.md | 45M additional hunger, most harmed least consulted |
| Latin America | countries/latin-america.md | Fertilizer time bomb, Q2 phase transition |
| Turkey | countries/turkey.md | NATO, Bosporus, Kurdish dimension, Bayraktar |
| Central Asia | countries/central-asia.md | Resources captive to China, INSTC collapse |
| Southeast Asia | countries/southeast-asia.md | Singapore hub, Indonesia nickel, Malaysia chips |
| Lebanon/Hezbollah | countries/lebanon-hezbollah.md | Active second front, ceasefire controlled by Tehran |
Category 2: DYNAMICS — Fully Modeled¶
| Dynamic | File | Key Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Cyber escalation | cascades/cyber-escalation-scenarios.md | Iran's last power-projection domain |
| Information warfare | cascades/information-warfare.md | Verification collapse → policy paralysis |
| Climate/weather | cascades/climate-weather-compounding.md | El Nino 62%; Gulf hurricane on 56% US refining |
| Health/pandemic | cascades/health-environmental-effects.md | Tehran black rain; 30-year cancer timeline |
| Domestic unrest | cascades/domestic-unrest-modeling.md | 9 countries; Lebanon 90-95%; Arab Spring comparison |
| Ukraine interaction | cascades/ukraine-war-interaction.md | Revenue-expenditure inversion; munitions competition |
| China-Taiwan window | cascades/china-taiwan-window.md | Coercive leverage > invasion; mediator paradox |
| Sunni-Shia dynamics | cascades/sunni-shia-dynamics.md | Axis fragmenting; Iraq decisive battleground |
Category 3: RESOURCES — All Indexed Files Written¶
All 18 resource files + construction materials + PGMs now written. See resources/00-resource-index.md.
Category 4: STRUCTURAL ASSUMPTIONS THAT COULD BE WRONG¶
These remain as acknowledged risks in the simulation, not fully testable:
- "Rational Actors" — Mojtaba Khamenei irrational escalation, Trump domestic-politics-driven escalation, Bahraini uprising chain reaction, rogue IRGC tactical weapon use
- "No Ground War" — Netanyahu stated regime change "will require a ground component"; CIA arming Kurds is a deniable ground component
- "No Nuclear Escalation" — Iran's 440.9 kg 60% HEU stockpile; breakout becomes rational if regime survival threatened. Now modeled in cascades/nuclear-proliferation-cascade.md but the decision to use remains unpredictable
- "China Stays Neutral" — Now partially modeled in cascades/china-taiwan-window.md; coercive leverage more likely than military action
- "Russia Stays Indirect" — Now partially modeled in cascades/ukraine-war-interaction.md; grand bargain offer is the key diplomatic variable
Category 5: SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS — Fully Traced¶
| Effect | File | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Migration/remittances | cascades/migration-remittance-cascade.md | 30M workers, $115B, 4-phase model |
| Crypto/alt finance | cascades/cryptocurrency-alternative-finance.md | A7A5, mBridge, de-dollarization |
| Space/satellite | cascades/space-satellite-vulnerability.md | BeiDou transition, GPS spoofing |
| Health/environmental | cascades/health-environmental-effects.md | Multi-decade timeline |
| Insurance systemic risk | cascades/insurance-systemic-risk.md | $1:$390 multiplier |
| Financial contagion | cascades/global-financial-contagion.md | Stagflation, EM defaults |
| Nuclear proliferation | cascades/nuclear-proliferation-cascade.md | 1→5 nuclear states |
Category 6: TIMING RISKS — Modeled¶
- November 2026 convergence: cascades/november-2026-convergence.md
- Agricultural calendar: Covered in industries/food-agriculture.md
- Japan SPR crisis point (Sept-Oct): Covered in countries/japan.md
- Pharmaceutical 60-day cliff (late April): Covered in industries/pharmaceuticals.md
What Remains Unmodeled¶
These are acknowledged limitations, not research gaps:
- Black swans: Assassination, accidental nuclear incident, pandemic during war — inherently unpredictable
- Exact military operational outcomes: Classified capabilities, fog of war
- Individual leader psychology: Decision-making under extreme stress is not modelable from open sources
- Feedback loop nonlinearity: Many cascades interact in circular ways that resist linear modeling
- Timing of tipping points: We know the pressures but not exactly when systems break
Sources¶
This file synthesizes coverage status from all 74 content files in the project. Each file contains its own source citations.